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ARC Group, a division of Informa Group Plc, announced today the key findings of its GSM 2000 survey. The survey is one of the largest ever conducted across the mobile telecoms industry with over 1000 respondents. It was conducted amongst professionals in the GSM industry, CEOs and senior managers represent 67% of the respondents.

The survey results give a detailed strategic insight into the GSM industry predictions over the next few years on a number of different factors including:

• revenue generation;
  
• deployment strategies for next generation networks;
  
• positioning of their businesses; and
  
• the future of mobile internet services.

Key Findings

Voice vs data revenue generation: On average, the industry expects revenue from mobile data to exceed that of mobile voice in 2.5 years, however, 5% believe data revenue will never exceed voice generated revenue. Mobile operators believe the primary revenue generating service will be mobile e-commerce in three years.

WAP was seen to be one of the key enablers for mobile data services. It was interesting to see that 69% of mobile operators are expecting to launch WAP within the next 6 months.

Market launch of GPRS & UMTS: 67% of mobile operators are planning to launch GPRS within the next 12 months with a further 24% planning to launch next year. In addition, mobile operators expect to be able to launch UMTS services in the middle of 2002.

The primary limiting factor to the success of UMTS was seen to be the absence of a global standard and the expected problems with availability of 3G mobile phones.

Over 50% of mobile operators saw the implementation of GPRS and mobile internet services as the most pressing issue facing their company today. Relating to this need for implementing data networks, 35% of mobile operators rate investments in new enhanced infrastructures as their greatest threat to profitability.

Revenue generating trends: The current decrease in Average Revenue per User (ARPU) is expected to level out, with 26% of mobile operators suggesting that ARPU will increase by over 10% in three years.

Pre-paid trends: Mobile operators expect the pre-paid market to carry on booming with 53% of GSM subscribers worldwide expected to be pre-paid subscribers by 2003. [Current figures (18/2/00) quoted by EMC state the percentage of pre-paid subscribers in the worldwide mobile market to be 23%]

Increase in influence of the content provider and consumer on the mobile market: Presently the most influential players in the mobile industry are the equipment vendors and mobile operators with the consumer taking third place. In 3 years time a significant shift in power is expected.

Content providers, consumers and also application developers are suggested to become the most dominant influencers. Mobile operators will take third place with equipment vendors having a much lesser role in determining the shape of the mobile market place.

Eric Cariou of the ARC Group commented: “This survey clearly shows that the GSM industry holds an ambitious and optimistic vision for the future. Companies are actively developing and deploying next generation mobile networks and betting on the future success of mobile internet applications.”

The results of the survey - over 100 pages of first hand information, charts, data and analysis - is available directly through http://www.the-arc-group.com/

For more information contact:

	Eric Cariou, ARC Group
	Phone: +44 (0)1483 268826

Links Out:
The ARC Group

Relevant Market Sectors:
IT and Telecommunications